Beamer's first season cause for cautious optimism at Carolina

The South Carolina football team wrapped up its first regular season under first-year coach Shane Beamer, and all signs point to a positive direction moving forward. 

There is still a bowl game likely to be announced, but I don't really count bowl games into how a season goes, unless you are in the college football playoff, which at 6-6, is not happening for Carolina.

LINK: Grading the 2021 Gamecocks

After going 2-8 last season, Beamer and staff worked Carolina to a 6-6 mark and also snapped a two-year bowl dryspell. It is the best debut in six decades and arguably best all-time.

Over the last 60 years, first year coaches have seen mixed debuts at Carolina. 

• 1961: Marvin Bass took over a three-win team and went 4-6. He did not have a winning season in his five-year stint. (+1 game swing)

•1966: Paul Dietzel took over a five-win team and stuck up the joint going 1-9. He went on the have just three winning seasons and one bowl appearnce in nine seasons. (-4)

•1975: Jim Carlen took over a four-win team and went 7-5. In seven years he had four winning season and three bowl appearances. (+3)

• 1982: Richard Bell took over a six-win team and went 4-7 in his only season. (-2)

• 1983: Joe Morrison took a four-win team and slightly improved to 5-6. In six years he had three winning seasons and three bowl appearances before his death in 1989. (+1)

•1989: Sparky Woods took over an eight-win team and slipped to 6-4-1. In five years he had just one winning season. (-2)

•1994: Brad Scott took a four-win team to a 7-5 finish and the program's first bowl game win. In five years he had two winning seasons. (+3)

•1999: Lou Holtz took over a one win team and went 0-11. In five years he had three winning seasons and a pair of Outback Bowl victories.  (-1)

•2005: Steve Spurrier took over a six-win team and saw slight improvement to a 7-5 year. In 11 seasons, Spurrier had 10 winning seasons, went 5-4 in bowl games and became the program's all-time winningest coach before resiging midway through the 2015 season. (+1)

• 2016: Will Muschamp took a three-win team and went 6-7. In five years he had two winning seasons, went 1-2 in bowls before being fired midway through the 2020 season. (+3)

All-time, only four other coaches have turned a positive four-game swing in a debut season.

• NB Edgerton (1914)

• Sol Metzger (1920)

• JP Moran (1943)

• Warren Giese (1956)

These four coaches you can file under fun facts to bestow at parties. Nothing gets a conversation going quite like how well a coach debuted 100 years ago. Trust me. 

Looking to next year, history may be a guide to see how 2022 may go for Beamer.

• Bass had a mirror season going 4-5-1. (0)

• Dietzel had a big swing, going 5-5. (+4)

• Carlen regressed to 6-5. (-1)

• Morrison made huge strides, going 10-2. (+5)

• Woods had a near identical year going 6-5. (0)

• Scott saw a big regression, going 4-6-1. (-3)

• Holtz had a breakthrough, going 8-5. (+8)

• Spurrier had a near mirror season, going 8-5. (+1/2)

• Muschamp had a great second year going 9-4. (+3).

So maybe not because these swings are all over the place. Forty-four percent of coaches had a year where the results were the same or a game differecne from the previous year. Scott had the worst second year, while Holtz had the best, but you eliminate those as outliers. 

As things stand now, fans should realistically expect a similar 2022 when looking at the schedule.

• 9/3 vs. Georgia State

• 9/10 at Arkansas

• 9/17 vs. Georgia

• 9/24 vs. Charlotte

• 10/1 vs. South Carolina State

• 10/8 at Kentucky

• 10/22 vs. Texas A&M

• 10/29 vs. Missouri

• 11/5 at Vanderbilt

• 10/12 at Florida

• 10/19 vs. Tennessee

• 10/26 at Clemson

Both Georgia and Texas A&M remain athletically superior and I don't see a year making a major difference.

Carolina should be favored against Georiga State, Charlotte, SC State and Vanderbilt. 

Outside of that, I'd say Kentucky, Tennessee and Clemson would be slight favorites while Arkansas, Missouri and Florida would be coin tosses. 

Optimistically, eight wins are feasible, and four wins should be the absolute bare minimum. 

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