New additions to Big 12 will make it.....a conference
The Big 12 is back at the center of college football news.
Before I move on, :cough: sorry, choked on a feather there from my heaping helping of crow when I wrote that Texas and Oklahoma weren't going to the SEC, and were just using it as a business ploy to gain more influence.
If you want a laugh, read this frosty cold take from yours truly.
LINK: Boy was I wrong about Texas, Oklahoma and the SEC
But dreams of the Big 12 going the way of the dodo were over exaggerated.
In a release this morning (September 10) the league extended invitations to Brigham Young, Cincinnati, Central Florida and Houston. The four schools submitted applications roughly a week ago.
Assuming no other schools leave, this gets the league back to its namesake of 12 teams after sitting at an annoying 10 teams the past few years. Now if we can just get the Big 10 to rename itself the Big 14 all will be right with the world.
But I digress. College athletics transactional, so who are the winners and losers in this deal?
Winners
The Big 12
One team I imagine is exceedingly happy is West Virginia, which finally has two programs not in either Texas, Oklahoma or Midwest to travel to. It also means they may get some more money in when Central Florida or Cincy come to town, instead of Kansas State, Kansas or Iowa State.
It is also a positive move for the four new programs. Cincinnati, Central Florida and Houston all leave the American Athletic Conference in a step up. BYU on the other hand drops its Independence in football.
This move also means the likely return of the Big 12 championship game, which is good for the league to get another game of importance on national television, and, in theory, bolster its chances to remain relevant in the postseason conversation.
The new school's bank accounts
The move is also good financially for all involved when it comes to revenue sharing. Granted, the Big 12 numbers will be different with the losses of Texas and Oklahoma, but the league made $409 million in revenue last year, compared to the American, which made $111 million.
Even if you take the low end of Big 12 revenue sharing at $35 million, it dwarfs what UCF got in American revenue sharing at $5.3 million.
BYU had no revenue sharing, so while they won't be getting all the money, the sharing does protect the program from a bad year potentially.
Losers
The Big 12 bank
The revenue and competition level are probably the two areas where the Big 12 still comes up short after this move.
It is hard to replace a perrenial playoff contender in Oklahoma, nor can you replace a revenue juggernaught such as Texas and its $200.7 million in revenue.
None of the four teams have been consistent playoff contenders. UCF had a good two or three year run, while Houston and Cincinnati have had success in the American conference, and BYU has its lineage.
But the financials is where this deal comes up a tad short.
Texas and Oklahoma combined for $355.9 million in revenue last year. While none of the four new schools eclipse the $82 million mark last year, the four combined for $302.7 million, leaving a $53 million shortfall.
Will that be made up with the four joining a bigger conference and likely bringing in more ad revenue with more possible TV attention?
I really don't know. I'm sure there are bean counters in the Big 12 office that have likely figured that out.
The Amercian Athletic
This move guts the American of its top performing schools. Just like when the ACC gutted the then Big East, the league found a way to rebrand, reshuffle and survive.
And all reports are the league will look to do it again in the wake of the exodus.
Spare a thought for AAC commissioner Mike Aresco, who tried to put a positive spin, but came off more like the guy who got broken up with.
"Today’s news confirms what we have said all along regarding our status as a power conference. The irony that three of our schools are being asked to take the place of the two marquee schools which are leaving the Big 12 is not lost on us. Our conference was targeted for exceeding expectations in a system that wasn’t designed to accommodate our success."
Whatever you need to tell yourself sir.
The league is left with East Carolina, Memphis, SMU, Temple, South Florida, Tulane and Tulsa. They could attempt to get Navy to become a full-time member, and coax Connecticut, Liberty and Army into the fold, but none of those four really move the needle from the independent ranks.
Do they turn to the Sunbelt, MAC or Mountain West? Or, do they go to the FCS ranks and pull a school or two up?
I suggest first a reality check for the league: You aren't a power league. If you were, teams would be flocking to join you.
What you are is a feeder system for the Power 5, and when one or two of your teams are on a upswing at the right time, they get plucked. Or they get shown a check with more zeros on it.
The league will survive, and will again get pillaged in the next round of call ups.
In Closing
This move isn't a bad one by the Big 12, but it also isn't great. It is a good move for the four schools involved.
When you break it down, it is a smart financial move, but it still feels like a move for survival.
This still puts them behind the Southeastern Conference in prestige, power and revenue generation. You could say that for any conference right now though.
The New Big 12
Baylor
Brigham Young
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Houston
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Texas Christian
Texas Tech
West Virginia
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